GTA Housing Market Update: September 2026

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board's September numbers are out, and they tell a quietly important story: the market cooled a little as summer ended, but the supply of homes for sale is shrinking even faster than demand. For anyone planning a move this fall, that combination is the thing to watch.

Here's my plain-English read on where the GTA, Toronto, and York Region markets stand right now — and what it means for your next step.

The September Numbers at a Glance

• Home sales: 5,040 across the GTA — down 9% from September last year.
• Average selling price: $1,006,409 — down 5.1% year-over-year, still holding just above the $1 million mark.
• MLS® Home Price Index benchmark: down 4.7% year-over-year (a cleaner read on a "typical" home).
• New listings: 16,500 — down 14.4% year-over-year.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, both sales and new listings eased from August, and prices edged slightly lower month-over-month. So the headline is a softer, slower market than the spring — but the detail underneath tells you where it's heading.

The Real Story: Supply Is Falling Faster Than Demand

Look at the two numbers that matter most together. Sales were down 9% — but new listings were down 14.4%. Fewer buyers are active, yes, but even fewer sellers are listing. When supply contracts faster than demand, inventory tightens, and tighter inventory is what eventually puts a floor under prices and then pushes them back up.

This is the same pattern that has been building for months, and TRREB continues to point to it as the setup for renewed price growth once demand firms. In plain terms: the stretch of year-over-year price declines that has favoured buyers is still here today, but the conditions that end it are quietly assembling.

What This Means If You're Buying

The window is still open. Prices remain about 5% below last year, and borrowing costs are stable — the Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.25% (prime 4.45%), with the next decision on October 28. That means you can get pre-approved, lock a rate, and model your true costs with confidence.

But "still open" isn't "open forever." With listings down sharply, you have less choice than a year ago, especially in sought-after York Region pockets where well-priced homes still move. The buyers doing best right now are the prepared ones — pre-approved, clear on their target neighbourhoods, and ready to act when the right home appears. If you're weighing condo versus freehold or timing a move, that groundwork matters more in a thin market than a flooded one.

What This Means If You're Selling

Fewer new listings means less competition for buyers' attention — a genuine advantage if your home is priced and presented well. The flip side: with buyer demand softer than the spring, pricing to the current market rather than last year's peak is what gets you sold. This is a market that rewards strategy over hope, and accurate pricing against recent comparables is the whole game. My downsizing playbook walks through timing a sale and purchase together if that's your situation.

York Region & the Bigger Picture

The GTA-wide average always hides local differences, and York Region continues to run above it, carried by steady demand for family-sized homes in strong school catchments across Richmond Hill, Markham, and Vaughan. If you want the specific read for your street or building — not the regional headline — that's exactly the kind of comparable analysis I run before any client makes a move.

The Bottom Line

September describes a market in a holding pattern that's tilting, slowly, back toward sellers: softer sales, prices still below last year, but inventory thinning fast. For buyers, the affordability window is real but narrowing. For sellers, lighter competition rewards sharp pricing. Either way, the right move starts with current data for your specific situation — not the headline number. For the fuller context on how we got here, see my fall market breakdown, and here's why strong representation matters most in a shifting market like this one.

Sources: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Market Watch, September 2026; Bank of Canada (overnight rate held at 2.25% on September 2, 2026). Figures are GTA-wide averages for illustration; your home's value depends on its type, location, and condition. This article is general information, not financial advice.